Market Sentiment Improves and Dollar Gains

Market Summary

The global financial markets found some relief in the last session, as signs of diplomatic overtures emerged following the initial shock of the U.S.’s sweeping tariff announcements. Several nations have reportedly initiated negotiations with Washington, seeking exemptions or adjustments to the proposed tariffs. President Trump, in a relatively more conciliatory tone, confirmed that his administration is open to trade discussions — a shift that helped temper risk aversion.

U.S. equities steadied after Monday’s steep selloff, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closing with marginal changes, reflecting a tentative return of investor confidence.

In the commodities market, gold prices came under pressure as the demand for safe-haven assets eased in tandem with improved trade sentiment. The precious metal saw a broad selloff, retreating from its recent highs as market uncertainty receded.

The U.S. dollar regained ground as risk appetite modestly improved and safe-haven flows into the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc reversed. Both currencies weakened, reflecting the market’s shift away from panic and toward a more balanced risk environment.

In the FX space, the New Zealand dollar remained under pressure ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate decision due tomorrow. Markets are broadly pricing in a 25 basis point cut, a move that would reflect the central bank’s concerns over weakening external demand and the potential impact of an escalating trade war.

Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain volatile and highly sensitive to any changes in rhetoric or policy signals from the White House. Traders will be closely monitoring developments in U.S. trade diplomacy, as well as key central bank decisions, for cues on market direction.

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Current rate hike bets on 7th May Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (63.5%) VS -25 bps (36.5%) 

Market Overview

Economic Calendar

(MT4 System Time)

Source: MQL5 

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Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The U.S. Dollar Index extended its rebound and formed a higher-high price pattern, breaching its previous resistance and signaling a potential bullish trend reversal. The renewed strength in the greenback came as market sentiment shifted following President Trump’s remarks that his administration is open to trade negotiations with several nations, aiming for “the best result” after last week’s sweeping tariff rollout. This more conciliatory tone from the White House helped ease fears of a prolonged global trade war and restored some investor confidence in the U.S. economy, lending support to the dollar. If the administration continues to deliver constructive updates on trade discussions, the dollar could maintain its upward momentum in the near term. 

The Dollar Index gain passed the Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% which indicated a bullish trend reversal for the index. The RSI climbs higher while the MACD has a golden cross at the bottom, suggesting that the bearish momentum is easing. 

Resistance level: 103.30, 104.70

Support level: 101.75, 100.25

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XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices have continued to slide in the short term as investors take profits from recent all-time highs and liquidate holdings to raise cash, possibly bracing for further turbulence in the equity markets. Despite prevailing market uncertainty, the short-term pressure reflects a broader repositioning. However, gold’s long-term outlook remains constructive, underpinned by escalating trade war risks and rising fears of a global economic slowdown.

Gold prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, RSI is at 34, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory. 

Resistance level:  3005.00, 3060.00

Support level: 2955.00, 2880.00

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EUR/USD，H4

The EUR/USD pair has shown signs of stabilizing, easing from its recent bearish trend and finding support near the 1.0905 level. The euro regained some footing after the European Trade Commission responded to the U.S. sweeping tariffs with its own retaliatory measures, a move that helped buoy sentiment toward the single currency. In addition, the eurozone is actively pushing for trade negotiations with the Trump administration. Any positive developments from these talks could provide further support to the euro and potentially allow the Pair to extend its recovery.

The pair has found support but has yet to charge above its previous high level, yet to show a promising bullish reversal. The RSI remains neutral, but the MACD continues to slide, suggesting that the bearish momentum is overwhelming. 

Resistance level:  1.1075, 1.1200

Support level: 1.0840, 1.0735

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NZD/USD , H4

The NZD/USD has slipped to its lowest level of 2025, though it posted a modest technical rebound in the latest session. Despite the short-term bounce, the pair remains firmly entrenched in its broader bearish trajectory, with no clear signs of a trend reversal just yet. All eyes are now on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate decision scheduled for tomorrow. Markets are widely expecting a 25 basis point rate cut, a move that continues to weigh on sentiment toward the Kiwi. Should the central bank deliver the cut with a dovish tone, the NZD could come under renewed pressure, potentially pushing the pair to fresh lows for the year.

The pair plunged 2% in the last session and extended its loss this week, suggesting a bearish bias for the pair. The RSI remains close to the oversold zone, while the MACD continues to edge lower after breaking below the zero line, suggesting that the bearish momentum is gaining. 

Resistance level: 0.5615, 0.5665

Support level: 0.5545, 0.5465

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Crude Oil, H4: 

Oil prices have tumbled sharply, dropping to around $60.70—marking their lower close—as recession fears weigh heavily on demand outlook. The market is reacting to escalating global trade tensions, particularly President Trump’s new round of tariffs on China, which have triggered retaliatory measures from both China and the EU. Major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have raised recession probabilities, further denting sentiment. On the supply side, OPEC+ is ramping up production faster than expected, while Saudi Arabia’s crude price cuts and a high U.S. rig count signal weaker demand and potential oversupply. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, demand fears dominate, keeping oil under pressure.

Oil prices are seemingly trading with significant downside pressure, and they are now hovering near their recent low levels, suggesting a bearish bias for oil. The RSI has declined into the oversold zone, while the MACD has crossed below the zero line and is diverging, suggesting that the bearish momentum is gaining.Any near-term bounce is likely to be short-lived unless geopolitical risks escalate materially.

Resistance level: 66.65, 71.75

Support level: 59.55,  55.35

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Dow Jones, H4: 

The Dow was hammered by a historic bout of volatility, swinging over 2,500 points intraday as President Trump’s sweeping 10% baseline tariffs—and threats of a 50% hike on Chinese imports—sparked panic across global markets. False hopes of a temporary tariff freeze gave bulls a momentary lifeline, but the White House swiftly crushed that optimism. With recession alarms sounding from both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, and Jamie Dimon warning of stagflation, investor sentiment is unraveling fast. Investors are increasingly pricing in the risk of a prolonged trade war with real economic fallout.

The Dow Jones is trading under sustained downward pressure. The chart reflects clear bearish bias, as the recent candles show failure to reclaim higher levels and a strong rejection at resistance near 38,742.70.The RSI has slumped deep into oversold territory, currently near 17, indicating extreme bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed decisively below the zero line, with widening divergence between the MACD and signal lines. 

Resistance level:38,742.70,  39,974.60

Support level: 37,704.90,  36,142.00

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BTC, H4: 

Bitcoin slid to $78,000, reflecting a 7% weekly drop and extending its 30% decline from January’s peak. This selloff was triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement and China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs, leading to a broad flight from risk assets. The broader market selloff mirrored the sharp decline in Wall Street, compounded by JPMorgan’s recession warning (60% likelihood) and rising economic slowdown fears. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin showed resilience, rebounding as investors saw an opportunity for bargain buying, driven by expectations that Trump might eventually support a crypto-friendlier market in the future.

Bitcoin has bounced from the key support zone near $77,500 after a sharp sell-off, suggesting buyers are attempting to reclaim control. Price is now approaching the resistance level at $81,000, where previous rejections occurred, hinting a potential short-term bullish reversal if momentum holds.The RSI has rebounded from near-oversold levels while the MACD histogram is showing reduced bearish momentum, and the MACD line is curling back toward the signal line, hinting at a potential bullish crossover.

Resistance level: 81,083.00, 84,286.00

Support level: 77,523.00, 74,437.00

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