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US Core Retail Sales data was released on Thursday, retail sales rose…

US Core Retail Sales data was released on Thursday, retail sales rose 0.7% last month, boosted by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments

Market Focus US stock declined on Thursday after swinging between gains and losses. Expiration of options and futures will be on Friday, which usually results in high volume …

20210917
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Market Focus

US stock declined on Thursday after swinging between gains and losses. Expiration of options and futures will be on Friday, which usually results in high volume and volatility. After seven months of gains, the equity market became choppier midway through September, but some market strategists believe that this is actually quite normal from a historical, seasonal standpoint.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones, both dropped on Thursday. S&P 500 was down 0.2% on a daily basis, as the index edged lower a day after it posted its biggest gain since August on Wednesday. The material and energy sectors were the worst performing among all groups, dropping 1.09% and 1.06%, respectively. The NASDAQ, on the contrary, finished in positive territory for a second day.

On top of that, US Core Retail Sales data was released on Thursday, retail sales rose 0.7% last month, boosted by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments. The data unexpectedly increased in August, easing some concerns about a sharp slowdown in economic growth. The news has bolstered investor expectations for next week’s policy meeting, as well as expectations that US central bank will start to taper stimulus sooner. However, the weekly jobless claims increased to 332K, higher than what the market had expected. Therefore, the market fluctuated as investors digested the impact of mixed economic data. Market focus has now shifted to next week’s FOMC meeting.

In Asia, the stock market was surrounded by selling pressure as the debt crisis in China Evergrande Group keeps fermenting. Furthermore, casino stocks in Macau extended their losses amid the government’s tightening regulations on casino firms.

Main Pairs Movement

The U.S. core retail sales figures for August was due earlier today, and the news quickly sent shockwaves across foreign exchange markets. August retail sales increase by 1.8%, month over month, excluding car sales. The robust August spending figures went against fears of the Delta variant hampering economic recovery, providing a much-needed boost of confidence in the U.S. economy. Majority consumer spending in August has shifted from the service industry to furniture, groceries, hardware, and online purchases.

Most currencies dropped against the dollar as demand for the Greenback soared. Cable trended lower and dropped through our previously estimated support level of 1.3801. USD/CAD gained as demand for the dollar soared, but the pair is still consolidating between 1.2589 and 1.268 with no clear down or up trend. AUD/USD, also, fell through our previously estimated support level of 0.731 as the dollar gained strength.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

Cable traded higher during the European trading session as the U.K. cabinet reshuffle passed smoothly. However, as the robust U.S. retail figures and American trading hours arrived, the dollar gained strength and started to drag Cable down. Cable tumbled as much as 0.53% at the beginning of the American trading session. The strong dollar brought Cable beneath our previously estimated support level of 1.3801 and the pair is trading at 1.378 as of writing. Speculators will be eyeing next week’s FOMC meeting as FED bond tapering is seemingly imminent.

From a technical point, GBP/USD reversed yesterday’s upward trend amid a resurgence of dollar demand due to healthy August retail sales figures. Cable has broken through our previously estimated support level and is continuing to trend downwards as of writing. Nearest support for the pair sit at 1.3755. However, the U.K retail sales figures for the month of August are due tomorrow and could provide some upward momentum for bulls and the pound if figures return better than estimated results. RSI is currently sitting at 37.74, suggesting some under buying in the market. Cable has broken ground below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA; furthermore, the pair is edging close to the lower bound of the bollinger bands.

Resistance: 1.3905, 1.3937, 1.3958

Support: 1.3755, 1.368, 1.3604

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

USD/CAD trended downwards at the beginning of the trading day, but quickly recovered from the session low of around 1.26, and gained more than 0.5% once the American trading session began. Strong dollar demand has brought the pair to challenge our estimated resistance level of 1.2708, helping the pair regain all of the lost ground since Monday. Speculators, however, should still be mindful that the Loonie is highly dependent on global export and commodity prices, thus indications of international economic slowdown could drag the Loonie lower still and propel USD/CAD to higher levels. The Canadian federal election will take place next Monday, and polls are showing a slight favor to Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party.

From a technical point, USD/CAD is still contained by our previous resistance estimates, but the pair is edging closer to the 1.27 price level. RSI is currently sitting at a marginally over-baught level of 55. USD/CAD has reached the upper bounds of the bollinger bands after today’s dollar rally, and the pair is currently trading above the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.

Resistance: 1.2708, 1.2834, 1.2912

Support: 1.2589, 1.252, 1.2494

AUDUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The Australian Bereau of Statistics revealed that the unemployment rate fell to 4% in August, compared to 4.6% in July. However, the decline in the unemployment rate is attributed to the lowered participation rate in August. Despite a better unemployment rate in August, the lowered participation rate raised concerns and bearish sentiment for the Aussie dollar. AUD/USD began the day trending lower, and, once the U.S. retail sales figures were released, the pair trended even lower and broke through our previously estimated support level of 0.731. However, as of writing, AUD/USD has successfully defended the 0.7285 support level and the pair is beginning to stabalise around that price level.

From a technical point, RSI indicates 55.38, suggesting neutral buying sentiment. AUD/USD successfully defended our previously estimated support level of 0.7285, but the pair dropped through the 0.731 support level. Currently, the pair trades at the lower bound of the Bolliner bands, and the pair is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.

Resistance: 0.7379, 0.7468

Support: 0.7285, 0.7222, 0.7117

20210917
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Stocks declined after that China’s economy was damaged in August from rigorous…

Stocks declined after that China’s economy was damaged in August from rigorous virus controls and tight curbs on property

20210916
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Market Focus

US stock advanced on Wednesday, recording the highest gain in three weeks. The stock market benefitted from the fact that concerns about a slowdown in economic growth has eased. Crude oil and treasury bond yields both rose. Gold price, on the contrary, declined on Wednesday.

The benchmarks, S&P 500, Dow Jones and the NASDAQ all rose on Wednesday. S&P 500 posted a 0.9% gain on a daily basis as the index closed in positive territory for only its second time in eight trading sessions. The energy and industrial sectors were the best performing among all groups, rising 3.81% and 1.12%, respectively. The energy sector was supported by the bullish momentum witnessed in US crude oil prices as US inventories are running low with storms disrupting US production. Therefore, it’s a rapidly tightening market for crude oil.

On top of that, the US CPI data released on Tuesday could be seen as a reduction of pressure on the Fed to start pulling back on loose monetary policies, increasing the uncertainties about the timeline of bond tapering. Despite this, investors are still worried about the rising costs on economic reopening and the impact of the Delta variant around the world.

In Asia, stocks declined after reports showed that China’s economy was damaged in August from rigorous virus controls and tight curbs on property. Casino companies fell on China regulation concerns, as Macao plans to tighten the regulations on casino firms.

Main Pairs Movement

The lingering effects of a weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI figure are still being felt today in foreign exchange markets. Both the U.S. 10-year and 30-year treasury yield fell on Wednesday. The Canadian CPI rose more than 10% in August to 4.1%, compared to 3.7% in July. However, the BOC still remains dovish and believes that inflation should be transitory. The U.K. CPI for August beat estimates and showed a 0.7% growth, month over month.

Cable repaired some of the losses from the previous trading day and is trading at 1.38446, as of writing. Better-than-estimated CPI data has helped boost the pound. The Loonie rose against the dollar as the Canadian CPI also reported better-than-estimated results. The Aussie, however, fell against the Greenback as Covid and inflationary concerns continue to plague any upward movement from the pair AUD/USD.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

The U.K. CPI for August set the record for the largest ever recorded increase in the CPI National Statictic 12 month inflation series. U.K. core CPI rose to 112.1, compared to 108.8 in August of 2020. The service industry, including restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture, and food and non alchoholic beverages, is the major driver for August price rises. Cable began the day trending lower, but, as U.K CPI data released, the pair quickly gained more than 0.4% to hit the session high of 1.38537. Speculators will be eyeing the BOE policy meeting, which will happen on the 23rd of September.

On the technical front, GBP/USD reversed yesterday’s downward trend and gained more than 0.2% during the European trading session. Despite falling through our previous support level estimate, Cable found support at the 1.38 price level and was met with resistance at around the 1.383 price level. RSI for the pair sit at 49.7 as of writing. GBP/USD has trended towards the middle of the bollinger bands and is trading above the 50 day SMA.

Resistance: 1.3905, 1.3937, 1.3958

Support: 1.3813, 1.3755, 1.368

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

USD/CAD gained during the European trading session, but slipped once the August CPI data released and the American trading session began. Post CPI release, the Loonie gained as much as 0.4%, and dragged USD/CAD to a session low of around 1.263. The BOC maintains its view that price surges in August remains transitory, but stronger-than-expected CPI figures will tempt BOC to keep forward guidances unchanged, especially in light of poor growth figures. Speculators will be eyeing the housing starts figure, which will be released on Thursday, and the U.S. initial jobless claims report, also releasing on Thursday. The Loonie is also riding the strong tailwind fueled by increasing oil prices and commodity prices.

On the technical front, USD/CAD is still contained by our previous resistance estimates. Strong selling pressure still exists around the 1.2708 price level, evident from the pair’s quick price movement reversal after closing in on that resistance level. RSI sits at 45.55, suggesting some under buying. The pair sits at the lower half of the bollinger bands and is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA, as of writing.

Resistance: 1.2708, 1.2834, 1.2912

Support: 1.2589, 1.252, 1.2494

AUDUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The Australian unemployment rate will be due tomorrow, with analysts estimating a 4.9% target. The central bank of Australia has committed to tapering plans – reducing-bond buying purchases from 5 billion AUD per week to 4 billion AUD per week, but extending quantitative easing measures into February of 2022. The Delta variant is still a strangling factor on Australia’s economy, as confirmed cases have continued to rise over this month. AUD/USD continued its downward trend as trading began for the day, but was able to gain back some group once the American trading session began.

On the technical front, RSI indicates 42.2, suggesting weaker buying sentiment. AUD/USD successfully defended our previously estimated support level of 0.731, but the pair met resistance at around 0.7335. Currently, the pair trades at the upper bound of the Bolliner bands, trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.

Resistance: 0.7379, 0.7468

Support: 0.731, 0.7285, 0.7285, 0.7222

20210916
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics Core CPI report returned lower-than-expected price increases…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Core CPI report returned lower-than-expected price increases in August

20210915
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Market Focus

US stocks declined after less-than-expected CPI data was released on Tuesday. The so-called core CPI increased 4.0% in August on a year-on-year basis after advancing 4.3% in July, which offered some validation of views among Fed officials that high inflation will be temporary, while increasing uncertainties for the timing of Fed’s bond tapering.

The benchmarks, S&P 500, Dow Jones and the NASDAQ, initially pushed higher following the CPI report. However, optimism quickly faded, and the US stock market started facing downward momentum. In conclusion, the influence of the CPI data was overwhelmed by concerns about Delta variant, risks from elevated inflation, slow economic growth, and growing chances of a corporate tax rate hike. SP500 posted a 0.6% loss on a daily basis, with the energy and financial sectors being the worst performing. Dow Jones and the NASDAQ declined 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively.

In Asia, Hong Kong and China’s stock markets wavered as investors are now focus on the troubles of indebted developer China Evergrande Group. Chinese authorities are facing pressure to find a resolution to a months-long crisis that has intensified obviously in recent days. The company is now dealing with protests by homebuyers, retail investors and employees as it struggles to meet its obligations. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, on the contrary, closed at the highest level since 1990.

Main Pairs Movement

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Core CPI report returned lower-than-expected price increases in August. The August CPI saw an increase of 0.3%, seasonally adjusted, missing analyst estimates by 4%. These results further validate President Joe Biden and the Fed’s stance that inflation could be temporary and transitory. The energy index increased by 2%, and was the most among all data collected by the BLS due to the increase of 2.8% in the gasoline index.

Most currency pairs against the U.S. dollar experienced a slight gain at the release of a weaker CPI, but the dollar gained back as pairs saw a drop. GBP/USD surged at the data release, but would hit its resistance and lose all of its gains during the initial news release. USD/CAD saw a drop during the initial news release, but the dollar quickly repaired losses and successfully defended its support levels. AUD/USD surged at the initial new release, but would go on to drop through our previously estimated support level hours post-U.S. CPI release.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

The GBP/USD pair soared by as much as 0.4% to a session high of 1.391 right after the BLS released its August CPI report. However, the pair would soon tumble as much as 0.54% to 1.383 over the next two hours. As of writing, the pair has found support at 1.383, and is attempting to repair some losses. However, Cable has met resistance at the 1.385 price level and is, once again, trending lower. Despite the sharp loss on Tuesday, the pound is still supported by Governor Andrew Bailey and the BOE’s hawkish stance. Speculators are betting that the BOE would continue its hawkish view and hike interest rates by 15 basis points by May of next year.

On the technical front, the GBP/USD is still confined to its month long upward channel. Since the announcement of U.S. CPI data, RSI for Cable has dropped and is hovering around 53.4, as of writing. Cable has met new resistance at around the 1.39 price level, but long term resistance for the pair still sits at 1.3958.

Resistance: 1.3905, 1.3937, 1.3958

Support: 1.3813, 1.3755, 1.368

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

USD/CAD plunged at the release of the U.S. CPI data. The pair lost as much as 0.39% to its session low of 1.2605. However, the pair quickly recovered and was able to gain more than 0.5% to reach its session high of 1.268 over the next two hours, post data release. Bearish signals still exist for the loonie as manufacturing sales in Canada declined by 1.5% (MoM) in July, worse than the market consensus of 1%.

On the technical front, RSI stands at 54, suggesting a relatively calm market. The pair currently sits at the middle of the Bollinger Bands, and is trading above the 50, 100, and 200 day moving average. Despite the rapid price movements for the pair today, USDCAD is still within bounds in the 1.26 price range and did not fall through our previous support estimate of 1.2581.

Resistance: 1.2708, 1.2834, 1.2912

Support: 1.2589, 1.252, 1.2494

AUDUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The AUD/USD pair gained 0.4% during the hour of U.S. CPI release, but dropped as much as 0.61% post U.S. CPI data release. Furthermore, the price drop for the pair brought it beneath our previous suppport estimate of 0.7345. The AUD will remain under strong selling pressure in the foreseeable future due to a dovish central bank, fall in natural resources commodity prices and rising COVID concerns. Despite the Greenback showing weakness due to lower-than-expected CPI data, the Aussie dollar is still plagued by a dovish central bank stance. On Tuesday, Governer Philip Lowe downplayed the possibility of an earlier-than-expected rate hike.

On the technical front, RSI indicates 35.2, suggesting weaker buying sentiment. Currently, the pair sits at the lower bound of the Bolliner bands, and the pair is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.

Resistance: 0.7379, 0.7468

Support: 0.731, 0.7285, 0.7285, 0.7222

20210915
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