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US CPI rose slightly in December above expectations, causing all major indices…

US CPI rose slightly in December above expectations, causing all major indices to rise

20220113
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Market Focus

The consumer price index rose 0.5% in December, slightly above expectations, taking the year-over-year consumer price index increase to 7% through December, in line with expectations and the fastest pace of growth since 1982. A drop in longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields on Wednesday also helped for most stock sectors. A sharp rise in U.S. 10-year yields has weighed on stocks in recent weeks, especially in interest-rate-sensitive growth sectors such as technology. At the end of the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11% to 36,290.32 points, the S&P 500 index rose 0.28% to 4,726.35 and the Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.23% to 15,188.39 points.

Among the S&P 500 sectors, the biggest gainer on the day was materials, up nearly 1%, consumer discretionary up 0.6% and technology up 0.4%, while healthcare was the only loser. In the tech sector, Tesla rose 3.9%, ahead of Microsoft, Google, the latter rose more than 1%. The healthcare index was weighed down by shares of drugmakers Eli Lilly and Biogen, which fell 2.4% and 6.7%, respectively. On the other hand, the biggest drags on the Dow were Goldman Sachs, down 3% on the day, Morgan Stanley down 2.7% and their smaller rival Jefferies down 9% after missing quarterly earnings estimates.

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar plummeted and fell to a two-month low after the release of U.S. inflation data. December CPI was confirmed as expected at 7% year-on-year growth, while the core reading beat expectations by a whopping 5.5%. The news usually sparks risk aversion, but this time, it had the opposite effect. Because the data failed to provide any new impetus to the Fed’s policy normalization efforts, the dollar index dropped 0.7 % at 94.987, after falling to 94.907, its lowest since Nov. 11.

The Sterling rallied on a weaker dollar and continued to move north, having jumped to the 1.3700 level, its highest level since October.

EUR/USD also gained momentum from a weaker dollar, breaking out of a consolidation zone to hit 1.1400, its highest level since November.

Gold edged higher to settle at around $1,827 per ounce. Crude oil prices also rose, with WTI at $82.60 a barrel and Brent at $84.72 a barrel.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable extended further north during Wednesday’s trades and is eyeing the next resistance level at 1.3830. The pair consolidated around similar levels in the Asian and European session, and surged aggressively after the US CPI data was released, which is generally in line with the expectations and thus pushed the rate-sensitive currencies like the Sterling to gain value. The pair now trades at around 1.3707, up around 0.44% from today’s open price.

On the technical front, GBP prices are moving further away from the long-term downside trajectory and are heading to their 200 DMA. The RSI indicator has just entered the overbought territory, and the correction pressure is expected to appear at around 1.3700. Cable is now experiencing a stream of short term optimistic buying amid the dollar’s weakness, and this risk-off market mood may last until March when the scheduled US rate hike is in effect.

Resistance: 1.3830, 1.3900

Support: 1.3600, 1.3500, 1.3400

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

After two months’ consolidation, the euro pair finally crossed over the robust 1.1400 resistance as the decent US CPI data lowered the investors’ guard about additional tightening potentials from the Fed. Despite no news from the ECB, market participants seem to bet high inflation and the spillover effect of the Fed’s dynamic will force the ECB to act. This is providing the shared currency with some degree of support by limiting the extent of USD-euro area rates discrepancy.

On the technical, the Euro pair surprisingly managed to break through the persistent downtrend line and the meaningful 1.1400 resistance. We can see that the RSI for EUR/USD has come above 60, indicating an overall bullish sentiment around the market. If the pair successfully closed beyond the 1.1400 threshold at the end of the week, then a fresh upside trend could be confirmed, leading the pair to the next resistance level at 1.620. However, if it fails, the euro will be back to the previous consolidation phase and keep falling in the near future when Fed raise rates.

Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1700

Support: 1.1200, 1.1000, 1.0780

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

XAU/USD buoyed for the fourth consecutive day as the revealed US inflation is generally as expected, easing the rates hike fears and causing a decline to the US yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield is down almost two basis points, weighing on the greenback. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $1,826 per troy ounce post-New York trading hours.

As to technical, Gold’s price seems to be neutral-bullish biased, but downside risks remain, with the long-term downward sloping resistance still capping its upside outlook. The continuation of the dollar weakness and the cautious market mood has continued pushing the price of gold to its resistance at $1,830. The RSI for gold reads 58.92, showing that there is still room for the gold’s uplift. The pair now lies above its 20, 50 and 200 DMAs.

Resistance: 1830, 1860

Support: 1800, 1785, 1765

20220113
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The broad U.S. equity market rebounded last night as Federal Reserve chairman…

The broad U.S. equity market rebounded last night as Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell smoothed tightening fears across markets

20220112
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Market Focus

The broad U.S. equity market rebounded last night as Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell smoothed tightening fears across markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.51% to close at 36252.02, the S&P 500 gained 0.92% to close at 4713.07, and the Nasdaq composite gained 1.41% to close at 15153.45. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield lowered slightly to 1.746%, while the 30-year Treasury yield also slid to 2.076%.

The energy sector gained an impressive 3.41% over the course of yesterday’s trading. Oil prices have risen from their year-end low and oil is currently trading at $81.343/ bbl as market participants have reassessed the Omicron variant’s impact on travel. APA Corp. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. both enjoyed more than 7% gains.

Main Pairs Movement

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Tuesday proved to be soothing for equity traders, but the rather mild tone by Powell brought across-the-board weakness to the Greenback. The Dollar Index lost 0.36% over the course of yesterday’s trading.

Cable gained amid a weaker Dollar. Tonight’s U.S. CPI data could fuel the Sterling’s recent upward momentum.

The Euro-Dollar pair gained 0.36% over the course of yesterday’s trading. Most of the upward price action came after the U.S. equity markets opened, and continued to rise over the early sessions of Wednesday.

Gold gained an impressive 1.1% over the course of yesterday’s trading. The precious metal is continuing its 3 days win streak, but the U.S. CPI data could bring substantial volatility to Gold.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable gradually climbed up from Monday’s dip in the Asian and European trading hours amid the global equity markets’ rebound. The pair is now trading at around 1.3620, firmly above the past strong 1.3600 resistance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell went to his nomination hearing earlier in the day, and fortunately, didn’t mention any new tightening policies or plans during the testimony, which eased the appreciation pressure of the dollar, thus benefitting the non-US currencies, including GBP.

On the technical front, GBP/USD jumped further away from the past downtrend line and over the critical 1.3600 level. The RSI indicator is around 67, and the price action is above its 20 and 50 DMA, suggesting sturdy bullish traction pulling the pair north.

Resistance: 1.3670, 1.3830

Support: 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3180

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

The shared currency price consolidated during the first half of the day, and surged after the Wall Street opening, especially during Powell’s hearing, as no new policies or plans were announced, and Fed’s confidence toward the US economic outlook have relieved the market’s worries about additional tightening in the coming month. However, the dovish stance of the ECB continues weighing on the euro. ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel said in her Saturday speech that only in the circumstances that the current surging energy prices transmit to other economic fields, or the green transition policies severely jack up the energy prices, will the ECB consider taking actions to ease inflation.

On the technical side, though the Euro pair advanced quite a bit (0.41%) during today’s tradings, it is still under its 200 DMA, and hasn’t crossed over the critical 1.1400 resistance line. The RSI indicator remains around the average line, providing almost no instructions about the future route of the pair. As previously mentioned, the pair must stand firmly above the key 1.1400 resistance to claim a meaningful rebound. On the flip side, a slip below the 1.1200 support may indicate the resuming of the selling streak.

Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1620, 1.1700

Support: 1.1200, 1.1000, 1.0780

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold went up in the third consecutive day amid the weakness of the dollar, as Fed Chair Powell didn’t pull out new tightening policies during today’s testimony, easing public concerns about a potential fourth rate hike at the end of the year warned by Goldman Sach analysts. The precious metal is now trading at $1,818 per troy ounce, heading to the key $1,830 resistance where it has gotten blocked several times. The rally of the pair is expected to continue before the Fed takes further action. That’s said, the current cautious market mood is in favour of the safe-haven gold, but the looming rate hikes of the Fed acts as an obvious headwind limiting the upside of the pair.

As to technical, gold remains firmly above the $1,800 support during today’s trades. The recent dollar weakness, as well as the cautious market mood, helped gold’s price to cross all its major moving averages and begin on a short-term winning streak. The RSI for gold reads 56.21, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish sentiment in this spot. However, gold’s price action is still capped by the long term downtrend started in November 2020. A breach of that trend will need a breakthrough over the $1,860 resistance, which is almost impossible to achieve without a significant catalyst. On the flip side, if the pair failed to cling on to $1,800, a short-term support will appear at $1,785 and the next support level will be at $1,765 once it plummets further.

Resistance: 1830, 1860

Support: 1800, 1785, 1765

20220112
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Powell is scheduled to speak on the Fed’s rate hike outlook later…

Powell is scheduled to speak on the Fed’s rate hike outlook later today, and the statement is expected to bring volatility to all markets

20220111
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Market Focus

The broad U.S. equity market continues to suffer for the second week of 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.45% to close at 36068.87, the S&P 500 lost 0.14% to close at 4670.29, while the Nasdaq gained 0.05% to close at 14942.83, ending a 5-day losing streak. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained little changed at 1.769% while the 30-year Treasury yield sits at 2.1%.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on the Fed’s rate hike outlook later today, and the statement is expected to bring volatility to all markets. The health care sector gained the most yesterday, as new mutations of the COVID-19 virus was discovered in Cyprus. The newly discovered “Deltacron” presents yet another hurdle to global economic and tourism recovery. Moderna enjoyed a 9.28% gain in share price as market participants reassess pandemic fears and vaccination expectations.

Main Pairs Movement

The Dollar Index, which measures the Greenback against a basket of major foreign currencies, began recovery over the course of Monday’s trading. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s statement tonight could, however, edge the Greenback even higher as market participants expect continued tightening by the Fed.

Cable retreated 0.07% over Monday’s trading. The stronger Dollar on Monday rejected any upward movement of the Sterling. Furthermore, on the technical side, Cable faces strong resistance at the 1.36 price level.

The Euro-Dollar pair lost 0.32% during Monday’s trading. The ECB’s president Lagarde is due for a statement later today.

Gold found further upward momentum as pandemic fears reignite. The precious metal continued its two-day winning streak and sees solid support near its current price.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

GBP/USD consolidated at the start of the week in the Asian and early European session, even once bounced off the 1.3600 strong resistance. However, the pair plummeted at the Wall Street opening, as the fresh fears of the potential new Omicron lockdowns and early US tapering spread, damaging the US equity market and the risk-sensitive Sterling. Cable now trades at around 1.3560, waving back and forth within the 1.3500 and 1.3600 price range.

On the technical front, GBP/USD’s outlook still seems optimistic as the RSI reads 62.16 which is healthy, and the price action remains above the downward trendline. However, the strong 1.3600 threshold is still present. Cable has to stand firmly above it to prove its thorough comeback.

Resistance: 1.3600, 1.3670

Support: 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3180

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

The euro’s price took a roller-coaster ride during Monday’s trading as the EUR/USD pair declined around 70 pips from the start of the day, but then regained over half of the losses after the US equity market opening, as the major indices dropped sharply due to the Omicron fears and rate hike worries. The pair has now settled around the 1.1325 level, and investors are all eye on Tuesday’s ECB Chair Lagarde’s speech to see if Europe will catch up on UK and US’s pace to further cut its pandemic bond-buying plans.

On the technical side, the euro pair managed to cling on its 20 DMA at the moment, eyeing the next resistance at its 50 DMA, and then 1.14. The RSI indicator remains around the average line, showing no directions amid a light trading day. As previously mentioned, the pair must breach the key 1.1400 resistance to claim a meaningful rebound. On the flip side, a slip below the 1.1200 support may indicate a resume of the selling streak.

Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1620, 1.1700

Support: 1.1200, 1.1000, 1.0780

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Continuing Friday’s rally, gold again stepped on the 1800 threshold during the panicking selloff at the start of Monday’s US equity tradings. The pair is now trading at $1,801 per troy ounce, advancing a mild 0.2% than its open price. The upside traction of the yellow metal is expected to last in the short term, as the fresh Omicron fears and the unstable stock markets will flock the investors back to the safe assets.

On the technical front, gold finally made it to the $1,800 level thanks to yet another day of the US markets plummeting. The fresh risk-off mood further pushes gold toward the next resistance at the 200 DMA, although which it failed to breach it later in the day as the market mood improved in the second half of the trading period. The RSI for gold remains lingering around the average line, suggesting a lack of direction in this spot. Generally speaking, a firm daily close above the $1,800 resistance, above the critical 200 DMA, would suggest more gains ahead for the XAU/USD pair. Conversely, if the pair fails to cling to $1,800, a short-term support will appear at $1,785 and the next support level will be at $1,765 once it plummeted further.

Resistance: 1830, 1860

Support: 1785, 1765, 1720

20220111
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