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The impact of surging US Treasury yields on the Greenback was offset…

The impact of surging US Treasury yields on the Greenback was offset by broader risk-on market sentiment, leaving the Dollar index trading sideways on Friday

20211018
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Market Focus

The broad U.S. equity market enjoyed another positive day on Friday to close out the week with positive gains. Strong 3rd quarter earnings and healthy consumer spending propelled stocks higher on Friday. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to close at 4471.37, the Dow advanced 1.1% to 35294.76, and Nasdaq gained 0.5% to close at 14897.34.

The financial sector reported healthy earnings for the third quarter. Goldman Sachs Group reported earnings of $5.38 billion for the third quarter, a 60% year over year gain. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley reported a 36% year over year earnings gain.

Retail sales for September increased 0.7%, beating estimates. Rising retail sales figures could ease some investors’ concerns over a slowing economy and inflation.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose again on Friday, and the benchmark is currently sitting at 1.574%. Oil prices leapt further on Friday as demand for oil picked up as global governments began easing pandemic-era travel restrictions. The U.S. will lift COVID-19 travel restrictions for fully vaccinated foreigners effective November 8th. The Brent Crude future gained 1% to settle at $84.86 a barrel, and the WTI future gained 1.2% to settle at $82.28 a barrel.

Main Pairs Movement

The impact of surging US Treasury yields on the Greenback was offset by broader risk-on market sentiment, leaving the Dollar index trading sideways on Friday. With the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holding above the critical 1.5% handle, the Dollar has stayed resilient during the early European session on Friday. In the second half of the day, though the upbeat September Retail Sales report slightly boosted the Dollar, the following Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data underperformed and dragged the dollar index down to the 94.00 threshold.

The EUR/USD pair is treading water on both sides of the 1.1600 level, unable to take advantage of a weaker US dollar. The sterling is the best performer among its main peers. It rallied on Friday to break above 1.3750, reaching 1.3775 for the first time since mid-September. On the flip side, JPY has been the worst performer. The USD/JPY pair surged over 0.5% during the day, and is now trading at 114.30. Commodity-linked currencies are hovering around the familiar levels. The Loonie has settled at 1.2380 at the moment, and Aussie was last seen at 0.7418.

Gold lost most of its Thursday gains and retreated to $1767.61 per troy ounce. Crude oil prices extend further north to fresh highs. WTI is trading at $82.10 as of writing, and Brent once breached the $85.00 price level during the early European session, and has now settled at around $84.70.

Technical Analysis

GBPJPY (4-Hour Chart)

The GBP/JPY cross continued scaling higher through the first half of the European session and once surged to its highest level since June 2016. Bulls are now looking to build on the momentum further beyond the 157.00 round-figure mark.

The momentum took along some short-term trading stops placed near the previous yearly tops, around the 156.00 mark. This seemed to have prompted aggressive short-covering and further contributed to the strong bid surrounding the GBP/JPY cross. With the latest leg up, the cross has now rallied nearly 800 pips from monthly swing lows, around the 149.20 area.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on short-term charts are already flashing overbought conditions and warrant some caution for bullish traders. Hence, it will now be interesting to see if the GBP/JPY cross continues with its positive move or bulls opt to take some profits off the table heading into the weekend.

Resistance: 160.00, 163.90(July 2016 top)

Support: 156.08, 153.50, 149.22

EURUSD (4-hour Chart)

The Euro keeps treading water on both sides of the 1.16 level, unable to take advantage of a weaker U.S. dollar. The common currency bounced up from year-to-date lows at 1.152 earlier this week but is missing a follow-through to post a significant recovery, and is still hesitating between 1.158 and 1.162 for the second day in a row. The U.S. Treasury yields rally, another source of strength for the U.S. dollar, has lost steam this week.

On the technical side, the RSI index is floating a flat movement in the day market and sitting at 57 figures, suggesting slightly bullish movement in short term. On the moving average aspect, the 15-long indicator has turned its slope positive, and the 60-long became a flat movement after the day market. Moreover, two moving average indicators displayed the golden cross in the day market.

In light of two critical technical indicators giving the Euro a positive signal. The one thing left is also the most important obstacle for upside traction: the 1.16 threshold. If the Euro can penetrate the 1.16 solidly, then we expect it will head to a higher stage.

Resistance: 1.161, 1.166, 1.1675, 1.171

Support: 1.153, 1.15

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

Loonie is advanced during the New York session, up 0.19%, and is trading at 1.2393 at the time of writing. Upbeat market sentiment has surrounded the market portrayed by U.S. equity indexes rising between 0.17% and 0.92%. WTI, the U.S. benchmark for crude oil, which significantly influences the Canadian dollar, has risen 0.61%, and is trading at $81.42. However, it has failed to lift the CAD. On Friday, BOC Governor Tim Macklem warned that the faster pace of price increases may persist longer than expected, and may slow the pace of Canada’s economic recovery, as global supply-chain issues weigh on the domestic economy.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator has rebound from over sought territory to 35 figures, still suggesting bearish momentum in short term. On the moving average indicator, the 15- and 60-long indicators still retain downside movement.

Since the Loonie has broken through a critical support level at around 1.24, we expect that the next pivotal support level will be 1.23. On the upside, the psychological level at 1.25 is still a pivotal resistance for the short-term, with 1.256 following.

Resistance: 1.2425, 1.25, 1.256

Support: 1.23

20211018
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The International Energy Agency said that record-breaking natural gas prices would boost…

The International Energy Agency said that record-breaking natural gas prices would boost demand for oil

20211015
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Market Focus

The U.S. equity market enjoyed gains on broad-based indices on Thursday’s trading. The S&P 500 gained 1.7% to close at 4438.26, the DJIA gained 1.6% to close at 34912.56, and the Nasdaq gained 1.7% to close at 14823.43. Stocks were boosted by healthy corporate earnings and better-than-anticipated economic data. Goldman Sachs, BB&T, and PNC Financial Services Group will release their earnings on the 15th. Morgan Stanley topped expectations for Q3 and beat earnings estimates. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley reported a 25% jump in net income year over year, despite a slowdown in fixed-income trading revenue.

The U.S 10-year Treasury yield continues to decline, and the benchmark is currently sitting at 1.519, down 1.94% from the previous trading day.

The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of October 9th dropped to a fresh pandemic low of 293,000, the lowest in 19 months. Importantly, labour demand seems to be on the rise as more people are coming off state unemployment rolls.

The Brent Crude spiked above $80 a barrel and is currently settling at $84.31 per barrel. Meanwhile, the WTI has also broken the $80 barrier to settle at $81.67 per barrel.

Main Pairs Movement

As Treasury yields held at the lower end of the weekly range, the Dollar remained weak. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury notes bottomed at 1.507%, ending the day nearby. The Greenback managed to post a modest intraday advance against the JPY, but lost to most of its major rivals.

Upbeat US data provided additional support to the market’s mood. The September Producer Price Index was up 0.5% MoM and 8.6% YoY, higher than the August readings though below the market’s expectations. Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 8 printed at 293k, much better than the expected 319k.

EUR/USD lost the 1.1600 threshold, ending the day a few pips below the level. GBP/USD settled at 1.3670, while commodity-linked currencies were the best performers. AUD/USD regained the 0.7400 mark, while USD/CAD fell to 1.2355, a fresh low since early July.

Crude oil prices are up. The International Energy Agency said that record-breaking natural gas prices would boost demand for oil, although top oil producer Saudi Arabia dismissed calls for additional OPEC+ supply. WTI settled at $81.40 a barrel, while Brent traded over $84.00. Gold flirted with $1,800 per ounce and is hovering below that level at the moment.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4-hour Chart)

The US Dollar’s bullish attempts seen during the early US trading session has challenged resistance again at the 113.70 area, although the pair retreated to the mid-range of 113.00. The USD remains strong against a weaker yen, trading right below three-year highs at 113.80 following a 4% rally over the last four weeks.

The Japanese yen is trading lower against its main peers with positive market sentiment hurting safe-havens in favour of riskier assets. The world’s major stock indexes are posting significant gains on Thursday, as concerns about surging inflation and supply chain bottlenecks have taken a backseat.

Looking at the bigger picture, the pair remains steady near recent highs, and a further rally is anticipated, even though overbought shorter-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. The next resistance is at 114.02, and the strength of the USD is deemed intact as long as it does not drop below 112.00.

Resistance: 114.02, 114.55

Support: 112.57, 112.00, 109.15

EURUSD (4-hour Chart)

The Euro retreated from its daily high and lost the 1.16 threshold, ending the day a few pips below the level, and is trading at 1.1588, 0.04% down as of writing. Earlier in the Asian session, the currency rose to a fresh weekly high of 1.1624. Upbeat U.S. data provided additional support to the market’s mood. The September Producer Price Index is up 0.5% MoM and 8.6% YoY, higher than the Aug readings although below the market’s expectations, while Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended Oct 8 printed at 293K, a number that’s much better than expected.

On the technical side, the RSI index has reversed from a daily high near the overbought threshold, suggesting a slightly bullish movement in short term. For moving averages, the 15-long indicator has turned its slope to positive, and the 60-long has become a flat movement after the day market.

All in all, both critical indicators are suggesting that the Euro could be heading towards upward momentum. Moreover, if the 15-and 60-long MA indicators could hit the gold cross, it would provide a profound level of guidance. However, we foresee 1.16 thereabout being the main resistance as the neckline of a W pattern. If the Euro can penetrate immediate resistance cleanly, then expect it to head to a higher stage.

Resistance: 1.161, 1.166, 1.1675, 1.171

Support: 1.153, 1.15

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

The Loonie is trading at 1.237, down over 0.57% after falling from a high of 1.2445 to a low of 1.2354 on Thursday. The Loonie has strengthened to its highest level in more than three months against its U.S. counterpart, as the energy crisis underpins the nation’s biggest export industry. Oil prices followed upward traction as the International Energy Agency said that record natural gas prices would boost oil demand, while top oil producer Saudi Arabia dismissed calls for additional OPEC+ supply. Meanwhile, WTI is sitting at $ 81.43 per barrel as of writing. Gold flirted with $1800, ending the day just below the level.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator fell into oversold territory and is sitting at 25, suggesting bearish momentum in the short term. On the moving average indicator, the 15- and 60-long indicators still retain downside movement.

Since the Loonie broke through a critical level of support at 1.24, we expect the next pivotal support level will be 1.23. On the upside, the psychological level of 1.25 is still a pivotal resistance for the short-term, following 1.256.

Resistance: 1.2425, 1.25, 1.256

Support: 1.23

20211015
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After the release of the CPI, US Federal Reserve officials broadly agreed…

After the release of the CPI, US Federal Reserve officials broadly agreed on the plan to begin the tapering process by mid-November

20211014
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Market Focus

US markets traded higher following the release of the Consumer Prices Index. Consumer prices increased slightly more than expected in September. According to the Labor Department, the rise in food and energy prices offset the decline of used vehicles prices.

The US social security cost-of-living adjustment will be adjusted 5.9% higher in 2022, according to an announcement by the Social Security Administration. Notably, the adjustment will be the biggest boost in about 40 years. For 2021, the Social Security cost-of-living increase was only 1.3%.

After the release of the CPI, US Federal Reserve officials broadly agreed on the plan to begin the tapering process by mid-November. The tapering process could see a monthly reduction of $10 billion in Treasury and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

Main Pairs Movement

Gold rose to the highest in almost a month as US Treasury yields and the US dollar declined after the release of CPI, which was slightly higher than expected. Gold was trading at $1,793, up nearly 2% on Wednesday. The upsurge of gold prices could be potentially seen as an initial reaction to inflation numbers.

GBPUSD traded further north, trading 0.52% higher. Lower US Treasury yields undermined the demand for the greenback; however, the upside momentum of the British pound was still limited as Brexit-led woes, a weaker GDP, and the worker shortage continues to be issues weighing on the Pound.

EURUSD traded similarly to GBPUSD amid concerns of US inflation and lower US Treasury yields. At the end of the day, the currency pair closed at 1.15907, 0.53% higher.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-hour Chart)

The EUR/USD pair is trading at the intraday high of 1.1596 as of writing. However, the current recovery could well be seen as corrective, as the pair remains below a firmly bearish 20-DMA. The MACD histogram remains flat within the negative territory, while the RSI indicator has bounced from oversold readings, holding below 50.

As expected, the Fed reaffirmed their previous statements in the latest FOMC Minutes: to start tapering in either November or December, and to end it in mid-2022. The dull announcement has had little effect on the market.

As for the resistance and support levels, our opinion remains unchanged. The first support appears at the 1.15 psychological level, then 1.14225, which was May 2020’s peak. The resistance levels are at 1.161, 1.166 and 1.171, where the historical tops and bottoms lie. The 20-DMA is also a strong resistance to the pair, as a breach of it marks a flip of market sentiment.

Resistance: 1.1610, 1.1660, 1.1675,1.1710

Support: 1.153, 1.15, 1.14225

XAUUSD (4-hour Chart)

The price of gold on Wednesday has rallied as key data was announced today. U.S. inflation data showed that prices rose solidly in Sep, stoking expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce a tapering of stimulus next month, with the potential of rate hikes by mid-2022. The Consumer Price index rose 0.4% last month, versus a 0.3% rise expected by economists. At the time of writing, gold is trading at 1791.99. The price has travelled from a low of 1757 to a high of 1796, which tests the 200-day EMA.

On the technical front, the 4-hour RSI index has breached overbought territory at 72.83 figures, suggesting overly bullish sentiment in the short term. On the moving average side, the 15- and 60-long indicators are both heading towards upside traction.

As gold penetrates the 1780 psychological resistance level during the New York Session, we believe that the market has found accommodative bullish territory ahead, as shown by the Fed boosting the tapering expectation, as well as trends indicated by the price action. On the upside, we foresee 1800 pose as a barricade to upside traction, followed by 1830.

Resistance: 1800, 1830

Support: 1783, 1758, 1750

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

The Loonie has stayed under modest bearish pressure during the European session on Wednesday with the greenback struggling to find demand ahead of key events. As of writing, the pair was down 0.16% during the day market at 1.2445. This was due to higher-than-expected U.S. consumer prices, with Sept’s CPI accelerating to a 0.4% monthly rate and 5.4% year-on-year in September. At the same time, oil prices have been unfazed in the day market, courtesy of OPEC+, which lowered its estimates for the rest of 2021.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator is still clinging to over sought territory at 38 in nearly three days as the market has been faltering, suggesting bearish momentum in short term. On the moving average indicator, the 15- and 60-long indicators still are retaining downside movement.

Since the Loonie rapidly broke through a critical support level at 1.25, we expect that the next downward support will be last July’s low of 1.2425. On the upside, the psychological level at 1.25 will turn into a pivotal resistance for the short-term, with 1.256 behind.

Resistance: 1.25, 1.256

Support: 1.2425, 1.23

20211014
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