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Though higher US PCE inflation, which rose in May 3.4% YoY, its…

Though higher US PCE inflation, which rose in May 3.4% YoY, its highest reading in almost three decades, the greenback’s performance is still weak

20210628
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Market Focus

The S&P 500 index rose to another record last Friday after investors poured over fresh U.S. economic data a day after an infrastructure spending agreement in Washington helped lift the broad market to all-time highs. The Dow also finished higher (+0.69%), with the rise in Nike shares being a big driver of its gains. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also added to the benchmark’s performance, after the results of the Federal Reserve’s latest stress tests, released last Thursday, showed banks have enough capital to withstand a severe global recession and so can resume paying dividends and buying back stock. Nasdaq closed red (-0.06%).

The U.S. president Joe Biden and a bipartisan group of senators presented the agreement on new infrastructure spending on Thursday. Biden suggested after the deal was struck that his signature on any infrastructure bill was contingent on Congress also passing the much larger tax and social-spending measure that Democrats are preparing.

On Saturday, he issued a statement saying it “was certainly not my intent” to create the impression he was threatening to veto “the very plan I had just agreed to.”

Mitt Romney, also among a group of GOP senators who announced the infrastructure deal with Biden at the White House on Thursday, said he was concerned about the president’s earlier comments but thinks “the waters have been calmed by what he said on Saturday.”

“I do trust the president,” Romney, a Utah Republican, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “At the same time, I recognize that he and his Democratic colleagues want more than that.”

Senator Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican who’s in the bipartisan group, said “I’ll continue to work for the bill.” Asked whether, on NBC’s “Meet the Press” whether he expects Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to try to sink the bipartisan plan, he said: “If we can pull this off, I think Mitch will favor it.”

Main Pairs Movement

Though higher US PCE inflation, which rose in May 3.4% YoY, its highest reading in almost three decades, the greenback’s performance is still weak as the stats didn’t surprise the market players. The dollar ended the week with modest losses. However, U.S 10-year Treasury Bonds yield soared 2.38% to 1.531, benefiting from the price index’s rise.

The euro pair kept lingering within familiar levels, ending the week at around 1.1930. Cable settled at 1.3870, as the pound remained under selling pressure, undermined by the BoE’s dovish announcement. The antipodean currencies modestly advanced against their American rival at the weekly close, while the loonie pair ended red.

Gold finished the week little changed around $1,780 per ounce. Crude oil prices advanced, with WTI up to $74.00 a barrel, and Brent to $76.00.

UK Health Minister Mark Hancock resigned on Saturday after breaking coronavirus-related rules imposed by himself. The news may impact the already weak Sterling at the weekly opening.

The week will start in slow motion from the fundamental side, with the focus on US employment numbers to be out by the end of the week.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4- Hour Chart)

USDJPY edges higher after the US PCE inflation data during the American session. The pair remains bullish mode as it continues to fall within the ascending channel, signaling the positive move. The stability of the USDJPY above the 110 psychological level continues to support the upside momentum. At the same time, the technical indicator, the MACD remains bearish while the RSI is still outside of the overbought territory on the 4- hour chart, giving the pair rooms to extend further north. It is expected to the pair moves toward the next resistance of 111.12.

Resistance: 111.12

Support: 110.51, 109.14, 109.84

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EURUSD bounces back during the American session after touching weekly highs at 1.1976, caused by higher US yields, giving the greenback a boost. On the technical sphere, the pair still trades in levels close to the oversold condition, which means that its bullish attempt might cling to the resistance of 1.1985 for a moment before next week, a busy US calendar week. To the upside, EURUSD remains bullish as the MACD is positive, and the pair trades above the 20 SMA on the 4- hour chart. If the pair ends up breaching its current resistance and the 50 Simple Moving Average, then it will head toward the next psychological level at 1.2000.

Resistance: 1.1985, 1.2052

Support: 1.1919, 1.1837 

GBPUSD (4- Hour Chart)

GBPUSD continues to remain under pressure by the dovish BOE’s decision. The pair reverses from bullish to bearish this week, moving away from the key 1.4000 resistance region and now heading toward its next immediate support of 1.3896. GBPUSD remains bearish as the MACD has turned negative, lending supports to bears; at the same time, the downside pressure is expected to continue as the RSI is outside of the oversold territory, giving the pair rooms to extend further south. To the upside, the pair needs to trade above the critical hurdles at the 20 SMA and the 50 SMA to stand back to the positive trend.

Resistance: 1.3963, 1.4017, 1.4072

Support: 1.3896, 1.3787

20210628
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Wall Street banks are poised to announce a deluge of dividend increases…

Wall Street banks are poised to announce a deluge of dividend increases and stock buybacks after Fed’s stress tests showed the industry built up a stockpile of cash during the pandemic

20210625
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Market Focus

Stocks climbed to an all-time high as President Joe Biden’s bipartisan $579 billion infrastructure deal added to optimism the economic recovery is taking hold. Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%. Dow Jones rose 1%. Companies that stand to benefit the most from a rebound in activity outperformed — with financial and energy shares leading gains in the S&P 500. Caterpillar Inc. (+2.6%), the world’s biggest maker of mining and construction equipment, jumped alongside raw-material producers such as U.S. Steel Corp. (+3.36%) and Nucor Corp. (+1.99%).

Wall Street banks are poised to announce a deluge of dividend increases and stock buybacks after Fed’s stress tests showed the industry built up a stockpile of cash during the pandemic.

Lenders can announce their plans for distributing capital after the market closes on June 28, and the industry’s strong results mean payouts may be the largest ever following the Fed’s annual exams. Early estimates indicate the six biggest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., and Citigroup Inc., could return more than $140 billion to shareholders.

The passing marks, announced Thursday by the Fed, indicate that firms are officially free from restrictions that the regulators put on dividend payments and share repurchases last year when Covid-19 was ravaging the economy. The banks’ solid performance also signals that the industry has grown much more comfortable with the exercises, which used to trigger anxiety and frustration across Wall Street.

However, as the news suggests the Fed’s indirect recalling of the pandemic-led relief measures, investors do worry about the monetary policy adjustments and the same weigh on the risk appetite.

Main Pairs Movement

Similar to the previous day, the greenback lost some ground throughout the first half of the day, to recover most of it during the American session. Trading was dull as released economic data were mixed. The euro pair hovered around familiar levels above the 1.1900 level, while antipodean currencies consolidated against their American rival. Loonie closed at 1.2320, slightly higher than yesterday.

US data was somewhat encouraging, although most of the figures missed the market’s expectations. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims printed at 411K, while the previous weekly figure was revised to 418K. Durable Goods Orders were up 2.3% in May, while the Q1 GDP was confirmed at 6.4%. The numbers indicate that the US economic recovery may have reached a plateau. It is not bad news but may prevent the greenback from strengthening further.

Sterling was the worst among the major currencies, falling after the BoE’s monetary policy announcement. As widely anticipated, policymakers remained rates and easing programs unchanged. However, the following statement offered a dovish tone. “The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.” Clichés were not satisfying. Speculators were looking for a more hawkish tilt. Cable trades around 1.3910.

Gold faced headwinds during the US afternoon, as stocks reached a record high. The rally in equities was backed by US President Joe Biden’s announcement, as he said that they reached a bipartisan deal on the infrastructure spending plan. The yellow metal settled at around $1,775.00 per ounce.

Crude oil prices bounced from intraday lows, posting modest daily gains. WTI settled at $73.30 a barrel, while Brent stands firmly above $75.00, trading at $75.54 as of writing.

Cryptos are on the way to recover its huge loss on Monday. Bitcoins traded higher in a third consecutive day, attacking the $35,000 resistance; Ethereum alike tried to break through the $2,000 level, trading at $1,990 at the moment.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4- Hour Chart)

USDJPY erodes overnight gains from the highest level during the American session as the mixed signals on the US inflation concerns keep the greenback bulls on the defensive. From the technical perspective, after contesting the resistance level of 111.12, USDJPY struggles to find acceptance above the level, resulting in a pullback afterward. However, the pair remains its offered tone since it continues to trade within the ascending channel, signaling that the bullish momentum has not ended yet; the pullback might be a signal to adjust its overbought readings as the RSI was around 70 when the pair hit 111.12 on the 4- hour chart. At the same time, sustainably advancing above its simple moving averages also supports USDJPY’s bullish traction.

Resistance: 111.12

Support: 110.51, 109.14, 109.84

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EURUSD enters the consolidative phase as both currencies are without clear directional strength. On the 4- hour chart, the pair shows that it keeps finding the support level of 1.1919 while trading in between the upper bounce and the midline of the Bollinger band, showing that the pair is poised to extend its bullish momentum in the near- term. The short-term bulls are supported by the MACD, as the MACD line is above the signal line. On the upside, if the pair successfully breaches this consolidative phase around the 1.1919 regions, then it will head toward the next resistance of 1.1985 to 1.2000, where the psychological level is. Technical indicators aim higher after consolidating around their midlines, which reflects the greenback’s limitation.

Resistance: 1.1985, 1.2052

Support: 1.1919, 1.1837 

GBPUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The British pound weakens against the greenback on disappointing BOE as BOE decides to maintain the monetary policy on hold, not intending to tighten the monetary policy. From the technical perspective, after the strong move this week, GBPUSD slides as the double top formation was previously formed in the near- term. The consolidation might take place as the RSI is in the neutral condition and the pair is at the moment trading on the midline of the Bollinger band, which signals that the clear move of the pair is indecisive as of now. And the price range for the consolidation is expected to see in between 1.3963 and 1.3896. On the downside, a convincing breach below 1.3896 will be seen as a fresh trigger for the bears; on the other hand, a break above 1.3963 will be seen as a short-term bullish momentum.

Resistance: 1.3963, 1.4017, 1.4072

Support: 1.3896, 1.3787

20210625
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Crude oil primers peaked at fresh yearly highs, easing modestly ahead of…

Crude oil primers peaked at fresh yearly highs, easing modestly ahead of the close

20210624
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Market Focus

US equities traded in a narrow range as momentum ran out of fuels. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index continues to make new highs to 14,274, lifted by a rally in Tesla Inc. On the other hand, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index closed in the red, dipped 0.11% and 0.21% respectively.

The well-respected Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan noted that the economy will likely outperform Federal Reserve’s expectation, leading to a possible early start of its tapering program. He explicitly said “I think we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities” during an interview with Bloomberg News. Wednesday’s upbeat manufacturing PMI of 62.6, the highest figure since 2007, further underpins a strong economic recovery in the US.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said her department may start to ease emergency measures to avoid breaching the US debt limit as soon as August. ‘Suspension of debt limit’ means the Treasury Department can borrow as much as they need to pay off its current debts and obligations. With the current suspension set to expire on July 31, Yellen urged Congress to extend the suspension or increase the ceiling, and warned failure to do so would have catastrophic economic consequences.

Main Pairs Movement

Major pairs are playing tug of war between gains and losses while trading at familiar levels on Thursday. Sentiment led the way, with currencies following the lead of stocks. USD fell throughout the first half of the day, regaining most of its loss at the final trading session of the day. The exception was USD/JPY which extended to a fresh yearly high of 111.10.

Markit released its June PMIs for all major economies. In general, the manufacturing sector recovery keeps outpacing that on the services sector. Despite mixed numbers, all figures indicated economic expansion.

The euro pair ended the day around 1.1930, slightly lower than yesterday, while cable settled around 1.3970, holding on to modest intraday gains. Commodity-linked currencies advanced against the greenback for a third consecutive day due to rising commodity prices, oil price as an example.

Gold once surged to $ 1,794.98 a troy ounce but changed course during the US afternoon and appeared doji at the end of the day.

Crude oil primers peaked at fresh yearly highs, easing modestly ahead of the close. WTI settled above $ 73.00 a barrel, as well as Brent touched $76 after the EIA reported that stockpiles decreased by 7.6 million barrels in the week ending June 18, better than anticipated.

The Bank of England is having a monetary policy meeting, although no fireworks are expected this time, as the bank won’t publish fresh macroeconomic projections, while there won’t be a speech from Governor Bailey. 

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (Four- Hour Chart)

USDJPY edges higher as Bank of Japan points to persistently low inflationary pressure while Powell cools down inflationary concern. On the four-hour chart, USDJPY is bullish in the outlook as it is well located in the ascending channel. At the moment, the pair even extends further above the trend line, heading toward the next immediate resistance of 111.10, which gives the pair more momentum to the upside. In the meanwhile, the pair keeps advancing above all of its SMAs, which indicates that the pair is gaining bullish traction. However, the pair might confront an adjustment as the RSI is nearly in the overbought readings whilst the pair has reached the upper bounce of the Bollinger band.

Resistance: 111.10

Support: 110.25, 109.72, 109.29

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD weakens after hitting six-day highs at 1.1970, the highest since last Thursday. Failing to breach its resistance level of 1111 means that the pair is losing its short-term bullish tone. Consolidation will be likely to happen in the range of 1.1945 and 1.1860, which are the immediate resistance and support. On the daily chart, the pair remains bearish as it continues to trade below its SMAs; meanwhile, the MACD signals the note that the bearish momentum continues to be in control. To the upside, the pair needs to climb up above 1.207 to reverse its current bearish mode. Otherwise, the pair remains bearish at the time of writing.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.2349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290 

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

GBPUSD advances for the third session toward psychological resistance of 1.4000. Despite still falling below the ascending channel, the pair seems to be on the track toward its bullish mode. The recent bullish move is not over yet, as the RSI is still outside of the overbought territory and the MACD is positive, lending supports to bulls. To the upside, the pair is heading to its next immediate resistance of 1.3968; if the pair can successfully breach the level, then it is one step closer back to the bullish trend.

Resistance: 1.3968, 1.4017, 1.4072

Support: 13896, 1.3787

20210624
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