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Wall Street banks are poised to announce a deluge of dividend increases…

Wall Street banks are poised to announce a deluge of dividend increases and stock buybacks after Fed’s stress tests showed the industry built up a stockpile of cash during the pandemic

20210625
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Market Focus

Stocks climbed to an all-time high as President Joe Biden’s bipartisan $579 billion infrastructure deal added to optimism the economic recovery is taking hold. Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%. Dow Jones rose 1%. Companies that stand to benefit the most from a rebound in activity outperformed — with financial and energy shares leading gains in the S&P 500. Caterpillar Inc. (+2.6%), the world’s biggest maker of mining and construction equipment, jumped alongside raw-material producers such as U.S. Steel Corp. (+3.36%) and Nucor Corp. (+1.99%).

Wall Street banks are poised to announce a deluge of dividend increases and stock buybacks after Fed’s stress tests showed the industry built up a stockpile of cash during the pandemic.

Lenders can announce their plans for distributing capital after the market closes on June 28, and the industry’s strong results mean payouts may be the largest ever following the Fed’s annual exams. Early estimates indicate the six biggest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., and Citigroup Inc., could return more than $140 billion to shareholders.

The passing marks, announced Thursday by the Fed, indicate that firms are officially free from restrictions that the regulators put on dividend payments and share repurchases last year when Covid-19 was ravaging the economy. The banks’ solid performance also signals that the industry has grown much more comfortable with the exercises, which used to trigger anxiety and frustration across Wall Street.

However, as the news suggests the Fed’s indirect recalling of the pandemic-led relief measures, investors do worry about the monetary policy adjustments and the same weigh on the risk appetite.

Main Pairs Movement

Similar to the previous day, the greenback lost some ground throughout the first half of the day, to recover most of it during the American session. Trading was dull as released economic data were mixed. The euro pair hovered around familiar levels above the 1.1900 level, while antipodean currencies consolidated against their American rival. Loonie closed at 1.2320, slightly higher than yesterday.

US data was somewhat encouraging, although most of the figures missed the market’s expectations. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims printed at 411K, while the previous weekly figure was revised to 418K. Durable Goods Orders were up 2.3% in May, while the Q1 GDP was confirmed at 6.4%. The numbers indicate that the US economic recovery may have reached a plateau. It is not bad news but may prevent the greenback from strengthening further.

Sterling was the worst among the major currencies, falling after the BoE’s monetary policy announcement. As widely anticipated, policymakers remained rates and easing programs unchanged. However, the following statement offered a dovish tone. “The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.” Clichés were not satisfying. Speculators were looking for a more hawkish tilt. Cable trades around 1.3910.

Gold faced headwinds during the US afternoon, as stocks reached a record high. The rally in equities was backed by US President Joe Biden’s announcement, as he said that they reached a bipartisan deal on the infrastructure spending plan. The yellow metal settled at around $1,775.00 per ounce.

Crude oil prices bounced from intraday lows, posting modest daily gains. WTI settled at $73.30 a barrel, while Brent stands firmly above $75.00, trading at $75.54 as of writing.

Cryptos are on the way to recover its huge loss on Monday. Bitcoins traded higher in a third consecutive day, attacking the $35,000 resistance; Ethereum alike tried to break through the $2,000 level, trading at $1,990 at the moment.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4- Hour Chart)

USDJPY erodes overnight gains from the highest level during the American session as the mixed signals on the US inflation concerns keep the greenback bulls on the defensive. From the technical perspective, after contesting the resistance level of 111.12, USDJPY struggles to find acceptance above the level, resulting in a pullback afterward. However, the pair remains its offered tone since it continues to trade within the ascending channel, signaling that the bullish momentum has not ended yet; the pullback might be a signal to adjust its overbought readings as the RSI was around 70 when the pair hit 111.12 on the 4- hour chart. At the same time, sustainably advancing above its simple moving averages also supports USDJPY’s bullish traction.

Resistance: 111.12

Support: 110.51, 109.14, 109.84

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EURUSD enters the consolidative phase as both currencies are without clear directional strength. On the 4- hour chart, the pair shows that it keeps finding the support level of 1.1919 while trading in between the upper bounce and the midline of the Bollinger band, showing that the pair is poised to extend its bullish momentum in the near- term. The short-term bulls are supported by the MACD, as the MACD line is above the signal line. On the upside, if the pair successfully breaches this consolidative phase around the 1.1919 regions, then it will head toward the next resistance of 1.1985 to 1.2000, where the psychological level is. Technical indicators aim higher after consolidating around their midlines, which reflects the greenback’s limitation.

Resistance: 1.1985, 1.2052

Support: 1.1919, 1.1837 

GBPUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The British pound weakens against the greenback on disappointing BOE as BOE decides to maintain the monetary policy on hold, not intending to tighten the monetary policy. From the technical perspective, after the strong move this week, GBPUSD slides as the double top formation was previously formed in the near- term. The consolidation might take place as the RSI is in the neutral condition and the pair is at the moment trading on the midline of the Bollinger band, which signals that the clear move of the pair is indecisive as of now. And the price range for the consolidation is expected to see in between 1.3963 and 1.3896. On the downside, a convincing breach below 1.3896 will be seen as a fresh trigger for the bears; on the other hand, a break above 1.3963 will be seen as a short-term bullish momentum.

Resistance: 1.3963, 1.4017, 1.4072

Support: 1.3896, 1.3787

20210625
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Crude oil primers peaked at fresh yearly highs, easing modestly ahead of…

Crude oil primers peaked at fresh yearly highs, easing modestly ahead of the close

20210624
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Market Focus

US equities traded in a narrow range as momentum ran out of fuels. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index continues to make new highs to 14,274, lifted by a rally in Tesla Inc. On the other hand, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index closed in the red, dipped 0.11% and 0.21% respectively.

The well-respected Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan noted that the economy will likely outperform Federal Reserve’s expectation, leading to a possible early start of its tapering program. He explicitly said “I think we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities” during an interview with Bloomberg News. Wednesday’s upbeat manufacturing PMI of 62.6, the highest figure since 2007, further underpins a strong economic recovery in the US.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said her department may start to ease emergency measures to avoid breaching the US debt limit as soon as August. ‘Suspension of debt limit’ means the Treasury Department can borrow as much as they need to pay off its current debts and obligations. With the current suspension set to expire on July 31, Yellen urged Congress to extend the suspension or increase the ceiling, and warned failure to do so would have catastrophic economic consequences.

Main Pairs Movement

Major pairs are playing tug of war between gains and losses while trading at familiar levels on Thursday. Sentiment led the way, with currencies following the lead of stocks. USD fell throughout the first half of the day, regaining most of its loss at the final trading session of the day. The exception was USD/JPY which extended to a fresh yearly high of 111.10.

Markit released its June PMIs for all major economies. In general, the manufacturing sector recovery keeps outpacing that on the services sector. Despite mixed numbers, all figures indicated economic expansion.

The euro pair ended the day around 1.1930, slightly lower than yesterday, while cable settled around 1.3970, holding on to modest intraday gains. Commodity-linked currencies advanced against the greenback for a third consecutive day due to rising commodity prices, oil price as an example.

Gold once surged to $ 1,794.98 a troy ounce but changed course during the US afternoon and appeared doji at the end of the day.

Crude oil primers peaked at fresh yearly highs, easing modestly ahead of the close. WTI settled above $ 73.00 a barrel, as well as Brent touched $76 after the EIA reported that stockpiles decreased by 7.6 million barrels in the week ending June 18, better than anticipated.

The Bank of England is having a monetary policy meeting, although no fireworks are expected this time, as the bank won’t publish fresh macroeconomic projections, while there won’t be a speech from Governor Bailey. 

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (Four- Hour Chart)

USDJPY edges higher as Bank of Japan points to persistently low inflationary pressure while Powell cools down inflationary concern. On the four-hour chart, USDJPY is bullish in the outlook as it is well located in the ascending channel. At the moment, the pair even extends further above the trend line, heading toward the next immediate resistance of 111.10, which gives the pair more momentum to the upside. In the meanwhile, the pair keeps advancing above all of its SMAs, which indicates that the pair is gaining bullish traction. However, the pair might confront an adjustment as the RSI is nearly in the overbought readings whilst the pair has reached the upper bounce of the Bollinger band.

Resistance: 111.10

Support: 110.25, 109.72, 109.29

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD weakens after hitting six-day highs at 1.1970, the highest since last Thursday. Failing to breach its resistance level of 1111 means that the pair is losing its short-term bullish tone. Consolidation will be likely to happen in the range of 1.1945 and 1.1860, which are the immediate resistance and support. On the daily chart, the pair remains bearish as it continues to trade below its SMAs; meanwhile, the MACD signals the note that the bearish momentum continues to be in control. To the upside, the pair needs to climb up above 1.207 to reverse its current bearish mode. Otherwise, the pair remains bearish at the time of writing.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.2349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290 

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

GBPUSD advances for the third session toward psychological resistance of 1.4000. Despite still falling below the ascending channel, the pair seems to be on the track toward its bullish mode. The recent bullish move is not over yet, as the RSI is still outside of the overbought territory and the MACD is positive, lending supports to bulls. To the upside, the pair is heading to its next immediate resistance of 1.3968; if the pair can successfully breach the level, then it is one step closer back to the bullish trend.

Resistance: 1.3968, 1.4017, 1.4072

Support: 13896, 1.3787

20210624
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Microsoft’s (MSFT) shares steadied after jumping to a record level, bringing its…

Microsoft’s (MSFT) shares steadied after jumping to a record level, bringing its market cap up to $2 trillion

20210623
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Market Focus

Stock futures opened slightly higher Tuesday evening, holding onto gains from the regular session. The three major indexes ended higher for a second straight day, and the Nasdaq Composite surged to a record high as technology stocks outperformed. Microsoft’s (MSFT) shares steadied after jumping to a record level, bringing its market cap up to $2 trillion.

The S&P 500 extended gains into a second day as the Fed chief said he’s got “a level of confidence” that prices will eventually come down while noting that it would be “very, very unlikely” to see the kind of 1970s-style inflation. In a testimony to the House Select Subcommittee Tuesday, Powell also said that a 5% inflation environment wouldn’t be acceptable, and urged patience at evaluating data on prices.

“So inflation is larger than they expected,” said Art Hogan, chief strategist at National Securities. “That part is true. But the part about that’s going to force their hand faster than we think is the part that he’s pushing back on. I think markets have calmed down about that.”

Earlier Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams noted that a discussion about raising interest rates is still “way off in the future.” At the same time, his Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester said very low rates for a long period and unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases can lead to too much risk-taking and financial stability issues.

Main Pairs Movement

Optimism returned to financial markets and weighed on the greenback. However, the dollar’s losses were limited and seemed corrective after last week’s surge. US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell testified before Congress on the Fed’s response to the pandemic.

High-yielding currencies posted modest intraday advances. The euro pair is currently trading at 1.1930, cable stands at 1.3940, while Aussie hovers around 0.7560. The loonie pair approached the 1.2300 level, while the ninja nears 2021 high at 110.96.

UK Health Minister Matt Hancock said covid-related data looks encouraging and suggests lockdown can fully end on July 19 as planned because a recent rise in cases is not resulting in deaths. On the other hand, concerns arose globally after the report of a new covid variant called Delta Plus, which may trigger new waves.

Little action around commodities. Gold keeps hovering around $ 1,780 per ounce, while crude oil prices retained gains. WTI settled at $73.00 a barrel, and Brent again stands on the $75.00 price level.

Cryptocurrencies were extremely volatile in the previous day. Bitcoin once tumbled below $30000, the first time since January, and now rebouned back to $33500. Ethereum alike plummeted to its lowest level since March and now struggled to get back to the $2000 price level.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold trades in a narrow range, around $1770ish, amid Powell’s testimony. In the near- term, bulls seem to be in control of gold as gold has breached the key resistance at $1770.95. In the meanwhile, both RSI and Bollinger band signal that gold still has a chance to the upside as the RSI is slightly above the oversold territory and gold is currently in the lower band of the Bollinger band, suggesting that gold is due to a bounce back. On the upside, if gold can climb to its next resistance around $1820, then it will confirm its bullish as it will trade above the 50 SMA. Otherwise, the downside momentum is still in control in the bigger outlook.

Resistance: 1786.38, 1811.25, 1836.12

Support: 1755.6, 1705.86

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD edges higher above 1.1930 level during the American trading hour. From the technical perspective, the pair remains bearish in the short- term as it continues to fall within the descending channel. The pair keeps clinging around Fibonacci resistance, the 61.8% retracement at 1.1945. On the daily time frame, the pair is scheduled to the downside as it is unable to recover above the 20 SMA. The technical indicator, RSI, retreats from the previous oversold territory whilst the MACD continues to lend supports to the bears. All in all, the pair remains skewed to the downside unless it can advance and breach above the 20 SMA, which is around 1.2100 level.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.2349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290 

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

From the technical aspect, after the recent decline, GBPUSD reverses from bearish to bullish in the near- term. The bulls seem to be held and supported by the technical indicators; MACD is now bullish, lending supports to bulls, whilst the RSI is outside of the overbought territory, giving the pair rooms to extend further north. On the four-hour chart, the pair is heading to its next resistance at 1.3963. To turn bullish in a bigger outlook, the bulls need to break the price to the resistance level of 1.4139 to return to its former ascending channel. So far, the sterling is moving away from the descending trend line; further move of the pair will be affected by the announcement of the BoE’s meeting.

Resistance: 1.3963, 1.4017

Support: 1.3896, 1.3787

20210623
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